The McKinsey report said faster employment growth at 12 million non-farm jobs annually is needed in the post-Covid period till 2029-30, up from just four million created each year between 2012 and 2018.
India has promised to reduce the emission intensity of its growth by 33-35 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030.
But it is disappointing to note that Sitharaman's third Union Budget continues to promote a few problematic ideas, observes A K Bhattacharya.
When we look at the pension expenditure of the states, so far, there has been no gain from the NPS reform. Pension expenses as a share of total state revenue expenditure rose from 4% in 1991-1992 to 10% at the time of the NPS reform, and have risen further to about 12%, observes Ajay Shah.
The government's programmes should be expected to generate some momentum, but the macro-economic numbers are not encouraging, observes T N Ninan.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday urged people to pledge not to do anything that lowers the dignity of women, saying a mentality to insult them in speech and conduct has crept in.
'It is not a matter of fixing the military problem up there in the Himalayas and the retreat of the two militaries.' 'India has to find a way to correct the racist and very patronising views of India in the Chinese mind.'
Demonetisation will help in transfer of resources from tax evaders to government, he said.
The survey predicts that agricultural growth would contract by 1 per cent this fiscal, but the industry would grow by 8.5 per cent, and services by a smart 9 per cent.
Releasing a report titled 'Profiting from Pain' in Davos, the rights group further said as the cost of essential goods rises faster than it has in decades, billionaires in the food and energy sectors are increasing their fortunes by $1 billion every two days.
UBS, Credit Suisse see emerging markets doing well next year, but expect India to underperform, given its rich valuations.
The economic growth is likely to moderate to 6.1 per cent, slowest in over seven quarters, from 6.6 per cent last year same period.
How do we get back to higher trend growth? The heart of the problem lies in private corporate investment, recommends Ajay Shah.
The message for 2024 is that the man on the street is not going to be euphoric if the G-20 crowns Modi as king-emperor for 2023, or if India sends its first man to space just ahead of the Lok Sabha polls. Even a 'temple consecration' in Ayodhya, or a Uniform Civil Code, or both of them together, may not have enough electoral purchase if fuel and commodity prices are not rolled back, and money-in-the-pocket does not fatten, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
Battling a sharp surge in inflation, the Reserve Bank is all for a smooth monetary policy response and the desire to have smaller hikes led it to tighten the policy in an off-schedule meet, a source said on Thursday. Inflation has been massively impacted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and will in due course also reflect the dent caused by Indonesia banning palm oil exports, the source aware of central bank thinking said, indicating that there was no other option but to respond. "The idea is to have a smooth policy response, not to put in large cold turkey responses," the source said, making it clear that the preference is for smaller magnitude responses and not larger ones.
The IHS Markit India Services Business Activity Index stood at 5.4 in April, an extreme decline from 49.3 in March, and indicative of the most severe contraction in services output since records began in December 2005. As per the IHS Markit India Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below that denotes contraction.
Earlier this month, the Central government said in a reply in Parliament it had taken measures to double farmers' income by the end of FY23 and the progress made so far indicated it was "on the right track". However, a close look at the data and at the assumptions made shows that as of now, it appears the country is unlikely to achieve the goal in real terms.
India's services sector activity expanded at a slower pace in December as rates of growth in sales eased to a three-month low and staff hiring came to a halt amid weak business optimism, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index fell from 53.7 in November to 52.3 in December. The index was above the critical 50 mark that separates growth from contraction for the third month in a row during December, but pointed to the slowest pace of expansion in the three-month sequence.
'While we note the very strong cyclical recovery in the economy, we believe there is still uncertainty over medium-term prospects.'
Maharashtra's "radical" lockdown move will have an economic impact of Rs 40,000 crore, with the trade, hotels and transport sector to bear the biggest dent, Care Ratings said on Monday. The rating agency said the loss of economic activity will have a 0.32 per cent impact on the gross value added (GVA) growth at the national level. It revised down its national GDP growth estimate to 10.7 - 10.9 per cent from the 11 - 11.2 per cent given a week ago. Maharashtra has been contributing nearly 60 per cent to the daily COVID-19 infections nationally and had over 57,000 new cases on Sunday.
India was already in the midst of a protracted economic slowdown before the virus hit due to a festering crisis among shadow lenders and declining consumer demand and private investment. Service sector activity in India is still effectively on hold.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday said the entire fiscal stimulus announced by the government would be funded by borrowings and revenues, and taxpayers will not be charged even a single penny. "I am not expecting the stimulus to be funded by taxpayers. Not a rupee from the taxpayer. The entire amount .... is shown as revenue and borrowings. "The government is borrowing to spend, but it is not taking from people," she said while interacting with journalists at the IWPC (Indian Women's Press Corps).
To meet the revised estimates for 2019-20, the central government will have to garner Rs 5.03 trillion in total revenues in March, which has seen the worst phase of the coronavirus pandemic so far and the resultant lockdown.
To help revive the economy battered by COVID-19, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday announced a slew of measures, including Rs 1.1 lakh crore credit guarantee scheme for improving health infrastructure, and enhancing the limit under the ECLGS by 50 per cent to Rs 4.5 lakh crore for the MSME sector facing liquidity crunch. Sharing the details of stimulus package, the finance minister said this comprises eight relief measures and other eight measures to support the economic growth. She announced Rs 1.1 lakh crore loan guarantee scheme for COVID-affected sectors, including health sector, which includes guarantee cover for expansion or for new projects. Besides, she said, additional Rs 1.5 lakh crore limit enhancement done for Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) scheme.
The finance minister could well be on her way to setting a record of achieving the biggest single-year reduction in the government's fiscal deficit, explains A K Bhattacharya.
Every option before the finance minister comes with a price tag, observes T N Ninan.
'We are at $2.7 trillion and 2024 is not far away.' 'The country will need to grow by 9% every year for 5 years continuously and raise the aggregate investment rate to 38% of GDP to achieve the government's target of turning India into a $5 trillion economy.' 'Given the fact that we are only growing at about 5% and our investment rates are only about 30%, it may take a number of years before we can reach that targeted level.'
For the first time, the value of card and mobile payments of Rs 10.57 trillion was more than ATM withdrawals of Rs 9.12 trillion in Q4 of fiscal 2019-20. In the months of lockdown, the gap may have widened further, but cash could be back in vogue when the situation normalises.
While efforts are being mounted on a war footing to arrest its spread, COVID-19 will impact economic activity in India directly through domestic lockdown. The second-round effects, it said, would operate through a severe slowdown in global trade and growth.
Amid an increase in localised lockdowns across the country, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday said there is no need for a loan repayments moratorium at present, stating that businesses are better prepared to face the situation. It can be noted that the RBI had announced a six-month moratorium in the early days of the national lockdown last year to help borrowers impacted by a chilling in economic activity. The entire state of Maharashtra is in a lockdown for non-essential services and localised and night lockdowns are being observed in many pockets of the country, including the national capital, to restrict the surge in cases.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday announced Rs 3 lakh crore collateral free automatic loan for businesses, including MSMEs, to benefit 45 lakh small businesses. Detailing parts of the Rs 20 lakh crore economic stimulus package, she said this loan will have a 4-year tenure and will have 12-month moratorium, she said.
The Reserve Bank may be hitting the end of its tolerance for high inflation and will most likely hike interest rates in the first half of 2022, analysts said on Friday. The central bank will also start rolling back its accommodative policies which have led to easy liquidity conditions, they said. The view from analysts came even as inflation cooled down to 5.6 per cent for July, after two months of breaching the upper end of the RBI's tolerance band of 6 per cent.
Despite a slowing economy, the Budget does not envisage any major stimulus through the budgeted fiscal deficit figures, said Goldman Sachs.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday said Indian banks face a systemic risk as the second COVID wave will impair the performance of financial institutions in the April-September period. Stating that economic recovery remains highly vulnerable to setbacks due to COVID, particularly if fresh outbreaks trigger new lockdowns, S&P said the banking sector's weak loans will likely remain elevated at 11-12 per cent of gross loans in the next 12 to 18 months. "The second wave has front-ended weakness in asset quality," said S&P Global Ratings Credit Analyst Deepali Seth Chhabria. "Financial institutions face a strained first half amid weak collections and poor disbursements."
Much of the rural recovery story is based on the premise of agriculture doing well. Even if it clocks a growth of 2.5-3 per cent this year, it is still just around 15 per cent of the overall GDP. The non-farm sector, which constitutes a bigger portion of the overall rural economy, is now hampered by disruptions and lockdowns.
Gujarat, for the second consecutive year, has topped the Niti Aayog's Export Preparedness Index 2021 which is aimed at assessing the readiness of the states in terms of their export potential and performance. Gujarat was followed by Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh and Telengana, according to the government think tank's report. Union territories and states like Lakshadweep, Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, Ladakh and Meghalaya were placed at the bottom.
Illustration: Uttam Ghosh/Rediff.com After a brief respite at the year's start, FPIs have dumped shares worth more than $5.7 billion (Rs 42,596 crore), taking the cumulative net outflows since October to $10.5 billion (Rs 78,466 crore), and adding to the volatility on the bourses. The figure would have been a lot worse had it not been for net purchases to the tune of $5.7 billion in the primary market from October to date.
The immediate revenue loss could worsen the Centre's fiscal deficit, from the budgeted 3.3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) to 3.7 per cent of GDP -- a massive 40-basis-point increase. It was stabilised at 3.4 per cent since 2016-17, report Abhishek Waghmare and Dilasha Seth.
'The fiscal pressure will be there, but the intent of the government behind this move is to spur demand and growth.'
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